Period covered · Sep–Dec 2025
Source · FEC Form 3X · monthly
Committees · RNC C00003418 · DNC C00010603
Built by · Claude Opus 4.6 · 02.15.26
Analysis · Political fundraising · Q4 2025
How news cycles drive small-dollar fundraising.
A comparative analysis of RNC vs DNC individual contributions, September through December 2025, sourced directly from FEC Form 3X monthly filings. The headline finding: the RNC's small-dollar floor held; the DNC's grassroots base collapsed by 56% in a single quarter — even as Democrats swept the November off-year elections.
RNC Indiv. Contributions
$28.5M
DNC Indiv. Contributions
$23.6M
Total Receipts (RNC+DNC)
$51.7M
RNC advantage in Indiv $
+21%
01 · The numbers at a glance
Q4 2025 in four cells.
RNC vs DNC · individual contributions
RNC · Individual
Sep–Dec 2025
$28.5M
DNC · Individual
Sep–Dec 2025
$23.6M
Total receipts (combined)
RNC + DNC, ex. loans
$51.7M
RNC advantage
Individual contributions
+21%
02 · Monthly comparison
Receipts & individual giving, month over month.
Annotations mark major news events
03 · Composition of giving
Small-dollar vs large-dollar.
Itemized (>$200) vs unitemized (<$200)
RNC — individual contributions by size
DNC — individual contributions by size
Key finding
The RNC's unitemized (small-dollar, under $200) contributions remained remarkably stable at $2.2–2.8M/month. The DNC's small-dollar base collapsed by 56% from September ($2.64M) to December ($1.21M) — a dramatic erosion of grassroots engagement in Q4.
04 · The asymmetry
Small-dollar share of individual giving.
Ratio over time
Asymmetry alert
The DNC started Q4 with a higher small-dollar ratio (41%) than the RNC (34%), but by December the positions reversed — RNC held at 36% while DNC plunged to 25%. The DNC's grassroots base disengaged faster than its major donors.
05 · News events & correlation
What was happening each month.
Event timing vs reported receipts
September 2025
Sep 10 — Charlie Kirk Assassination
Turning Point USA founder shot and killed at Utah Valley University campus event.
→ Massive RNC/conservative fundraising catalyst. Small-dollar fury.
Sep 29 — Trump announces Gaza Peace Plan
Multilateral ceasefire framework announced with Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt.
→ Bolstered GOP "peace through strength" narrative for donors.
| RNC | DNC | |
|---|---|---|
| Total Receipts | $10.74M | $10.27M |
| Individual (Total) | $6.75M | $6.45M |
| Small-Dollar (<$200) | $2.32M | $2.64M |
October 2025
Oct 1 — Government shutdown begins
Federal government shuts down as Congress fails to pass FY2026 appropriations.
→ Both parties use blame narratives for fundraising appeals.
Oct 9 — Israel-Hamas ceasefire signed
Hostages released; fragile peace begins in Gaza.
→ Big win for Trump administration; GOP fundraising surge.
| RNC | DNC | |
|---|---|---|
| Total Receipts | $14.71M | $23.14M* |
| Individual (Total) | $8.36M | $7.54M |
| Small-Dollar (<$200) | $2.81M | $2.74M |
| *DNC total includes $15M loan | ||
November 2025
Nov 4 — Off-year election sweep
Democrats sweep nearly every competitive race nationwide.
→ Post-victory "momentum" fundraising for DNC — but muted response.
Nov 12 — Government shutdown ends
43-day shutdown concludes with CR signed into law.
→ Resolution removes urgency-based fundraising lever for both parties.
| RNC | DNC | |
|---|---|---|
| Total Receipts | $10.19M | $10.77M |
| Individual (Total) | $5.99M | $4.81M |
| Small-Dollar (<$200) | $2.21M | $1.49M |
December 2025
Dec 15 — Bondi Beach terror attack
Terrorist shooting at Hanukkah celebration in Sydney kills 15.
→ Security-focused fundraising appeals; less direct domestic impact.
Dec — Year-end appeals
Standard year-end tax-deduction deadline fundraising push by both parties.
→ RNC year-end machine significantly outperformed DNC's.
| RNC | DNC | |
|---|---|---|
| Total Receipts | $16.03M | $12.80M |
| Individual (Total) | $7.38M | $4.78M |
| Small-Dollar (<$200) | $2.62M | $1.21M |
06 · The full ledger
Complete data table.
Form 3X · all four months · Q4 totals
| Month | RNC Total Receipts | RNC Itemized (>$200) | RNC Unitemized (<$200) | DNC Total Receipts | DNC Itemized (>$200) | DNC Unitemized (<$200) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep | $10,743,005 | $4,431,239 | $2,320,913 | $10,274,392 | $3,811,246 | $2,642,801 |
| Oct | $14,705,202 | $5,555,598 | $2,808,458 | $23,138,768 | $4,801,873 | $2,739,801 |
| Nov | $10,188,095 | $3,783,099 | $2,211,665 | $10,772,637 | $3,322,505 | $1,489,164 |
| Dec | $16,025,562 | $4,761,346 | $2,622,182 | $12,804,633 | $3,568,846 | $1,213,448 |
| Q4 Total | $51,661,864 | $18,531,282 | $9,963,218 | $56,990,430 | $15,504,470 | $8,085,214 |
07 · Key findings
Four signals from the ledger.
What the numbers actually say
Finding · 01
The RNC's small-dollar floor.
The RNC maintained a remarkably consistent small-dollar contribution level throughout Q4 — never dropping below $2.2M or rising above $2.8M per month. This suggests a mature, recurring-donor infrastructure that generates steady revenue regardless of the news cycle. The RNC's small-dollar variance was just ±12% from its mean.
Finding · 02
The DNC's grassroots collapse.
The DNC's unitemized contributions fell 56% from September to December ($2.64M → $1.21M). This is a striking erosion. Despite winning the November elections decisively, the DNC failed to convert political momentum into small-dollar donations. The party's grassroots base appears to be in a post-2024 disengagement spiral.
Finding · 03
Crisis drives RNC spikes.
The RNC's two biggest months — October ($14.7M) and December ($16.0M) — align with the government shutdown and year-end appeals respectively. The Charlie Kirk assassination in September likely fueled the October surge with delayed processing. Crisis and outrage are the RNC's most effective fundraising accelerants.
Finding · 04
DNC relied on institutional money.
The DNC took a $15M loan in October to fund operations — a clear sign that organic fundraising wasn't meeting operational needs. Their "Other Federal Receipts" and transfers from affiliated committees provided life support that individual donors did not. The DNC is running a top-heavy funding model.
08 · Strategic recommendations
What an operator would do next.
Five plays · for either side of the aisle
-
01
DNC: Rebuild the recurring donor base.
The 56% collapse in small-dollar giving is an existential problem. The DNC needs to invest heavily in monthly-sustainer programs. The RNC's floor of $2.2M/month proves that recurring infrastructure works — the DNC had it in 2020 and lost it.
-
02
RNC: Weaponize crisis faster.
October's spike shows the RNC responds to catalysts but with a lag. Real-time crisis fundraising — emails within hours, not days — could capture another 15–20% of impulse donors. The Kirk assassination was the kind of event that should produce $5M+ in small-dollar alone.
-
03
Both parties: Don't assume wins drive donations.
The DNC's November election sweep produced their worst fundraising month. Victories reduce urgency. The smartest fundraisers frame wins as "now we need to defend what we won" rather than victory laps.
-
04
Strategists: Small-dollar donors respond to threat, not hope.
Across both parties, the data is clear: threat-based narratives (shutdown, assassination, security) drive more small-dollar giving than positive developments (peace deals, election wins). Build your email calendar around what scares your base, not what excites it.
-
05
DNC: Watch the loan dependency.
A $15M loan to fund operations while individual giving declines is a dangerous trajectory. The DNC needs to cut operational costs or dramatically improve fundraising — not paper over the gap with debt. This is the financial profile of an organization in structural decline.
09 · Methodology
Sources, definitions, limits.
Show your work
Data sources
All financial data sourced directly from FEC Form 3X monthly filings for the 2025–2026 election cycle, accessed via the FEC Electronic Filing system at docquery.fec.gov.
Committee IDs
RNC: C00003418 · DNC: C00010603
Filing IDs referenced
RNC — Sep: FEC-1923017, Oct: FEC-1926421, Nov: FEC-1929757, Dec: FEC-1943313
DNC — Sep: FEC-1923132, Oct: FEC-1926358, Nov: FEC-1929788, Dec: FEC-1943924
Definitions
Small-dollar / Unitemized: Line 11(a)(ii) — individual contributions under $200 that are not required to be itemized by name. The standard FEC proxy for "small-dollar" grassroots giving.
Large-dollar / Itemized: Line 11(a)(i) — individual contributions of $200+ where donor identity must be disclosed.
Total Receipts: Line 19 — includes contributions, transfers, loans, offsets, and other receipts.
News events
Event dates and descriptions sourced from CBS News, Wikipedia current events portals, and Ballotpedia. Correlations between events and fundraising are analytical inferences based on timing — monthly FEC data does not allow precise daily attribution.
Limitations
Monthly reporting granularity means we cannot isolate specific daily or weekly fundraising spikes within a given month. The DNC's $15M loan in October inflates their total receipts figure for that month and should be excluded from contribution comparisons. "Unitemized" is an imperfect proxy for small-dollar — some donors who give multiple small amounts that aggregate over $200 in a cycle get reclassified as itemized.
Built by
Analysis by Claude Opus 4.6 for the FEC Shootout project. Dashboard generated February 15, 2026. Part of an ongoing series comparing how frontier AI models handle real political fundraising data.
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FEC Shootout · Claude Opus 4.6 · Q4 2025 cycle