TLH OC/LA Market Strategy

Funnel Analysis + Channel Expansion Plan

Updated: February 12, 2026
Data: Sept 2025 – Jan 2026
🎯

The Core Challenge: The Whole Funnel is Constrained

OC needs 17 meetings/month to hit 6 wins. We're getting ~9 meetings/month. Google Ads alone β€” PMAX or Search β€” can't close that gap at current economics. We need new channels.

πŸ“Š The Funnel Challenge

OC Reverse Funnel: Target vs Reality

90
Raw Leads/mo
Need: 143
17
Qualified/mo
Need: 57
9
Meetings/mo
Need: 17
2
Wins/mo
Target: 6
Every stage is below target. The funnel is constrained at every level.

The Monthly Gap

Meetings -8/mo
9 actual 17 needed
Wins -4/mo
2 actual 6 target

Why Google Ads Alone Can't Close the Gap

PM
PMAX
Performance Max
355
leads (5 mo)
4.8%
opp rate
The tradeoff: Cheap volume ($706/opp), but low quality. Drives phone activity, but only 1 in 20 becomes a real opportunity.
To get 17 meetings/mo from PMAX alone: Need 354 leads/mo (5Γ— current)
S
Search
Estate Sales keywords
70
leads (5 mo)
28.6%
opp rate
The tradeoff: Higher quality (6Γ— PMAX), but expensive ($1,400/opp) and limited volume in OC market.
To get 17 meetings/mo from Search alone: Need 59 leads/mo (4Γ— current)

Bottom line: Scaling either channel 4-5Γ— isn't realistic. We need new channels with higher intent and better economics.

πŸš€ Channel Expansion Plan

Premium estate work routes through trust channels β€” fiduciaries, attorneys, move managers β€” not Google searches. Here's the plan to build those channels.

Priority 1 βš–οΈ

Fiduciary Partner Network

Trustees, executors, and probate attorneys control premium estate decisions. Build a referral pipeline through these gatekeepers.

Target Partners
  • β€’ Elder law / probate attorneys
  • β€’ Professional fiduciaries
  • β€’ Trust officers at banks
  • β€’ Estate planning attorneys
Why This Works

Premium competitors (Comprehensive Estate Liquidations, CA Estate Sales & Auction) explicitly cite fiduciary relationships as their primary source. This is how high-value estates route.

Action: Build partner portal with intake form, status updates, and attribution tracking. Start with 10 target partners in OC.
Priority 1 πŸ“¦

Senior Move Manager Network

NASMM members help families downsize and transition. They already coordinate estate sales β€” become their default partner.

The NASMM Play
  • β€’ 25-50 move managers across OC/LA ZIPs
  • β€’ Convert 10-15 into active monthly referrers
  • β€’ Offer "preferred vendor" status + easy handoff
  • β€’ Track referrals β†’ opps β†’ wins by partner
Why This Works

Move managers already expect to coordinate estate sale assistance via partner connections. TLH becomes the default if the process is easy and outcomes are consistent.

Action: Pull NASMM directory for OC/LA, identify top 25, create "Estate Settlement Kit" co-marketing asset.
Priority 2 πŸ“¬

Micro-Geo Direct Mail

Target high-value homeowners directly with tactile mail. Narrow and repeated in premium ZIPs, not broad saturation.

Targeting Criteria
  • β€’ Property value $1M+
  • β€’ Ownership tenure 10+ years
  • β€’ Age proxy: 65+ household
  • β€’ 2-4 micro-geos, 500 homes each
The Play

Use tactile/interactive formats (USPS promotions), QR tracking, call tracking. Pair with retargeting so mail-driven curiosity doesn't leak to competitors.

Test ZIPs: Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, Palos Verdes, Irvine (Turtle Rock)
LA Test 🏘️

Nextdoor (LA Only)

74% of Nextdoor members are homeowners. Didn't work in OC β€” test in LA with authority content, not lead-gen ads.

LA Test Parameters
  • β€’ Affluent LA neighborhoods only
  • β€’ Educational "authority" posts, not promos
  • β€’ Neighborhood sponsorship format
  • β€’ 90-day test with clear success metrics
Why LA, Not OC

OC Nextdoor didn't convert. LA is a different market with different dynamics β€” worth testing before ruling out entirely.

Target areas: Palos Verdes, Manhattan Beach, Pasadena, Hancock Park
Priority 2 🏠

Strategic RE Team Partnerships

Agents listing inherited/estate properties need contents cleared fast. The "golden ring" bundle: estate sale + cash offer on the home.

Target Agents
  • β€’ Probate/trust sale specialists
  • β€’ Senior real estate specialists (SRES)
  • β€’ High-volume listing agents in target ZIPs
  • β€’ Teams with 55+ client focus
The Bundle Pitch

"We clear the contents, you list the home. Or: we buy the home too β€” estate sale bundling discount, no commissions, close in 14 days."

Action: Identify 20 probate-focused agents in OC, create co-branded "Estate Settlement Timeline" PDF.
Test Q2 πŸŽ™οΈ

Streaming Audio / Podcasts

75% of podcast listeners trust hosts. Use audio for upper-funnel trust building, then capture with retargeting.

Approach
  • β€’ Target 55+ in OC/LA metros
  • β€’ "How to settle an estate" messaging
  • β€’ Spotify demographic + location targeting
  • β€’ Pair with brand search defense
Why Audio

High-trust medium for complex decisions. Not last-click β€” builds familiarity so when they DO search, they search for TLH.

Budget: $2-3K test, measure brand search lift and assisted conversions

πŸ† Competitive Context: How Premium Competitors Win

At the $15K+ estate tier, the competitive set isn't "weekend estate sale companies" β€” it's high-touch liquidation firms that emphasize discretion, fiduciary relationships, and multi-channel asset disposition.

Comprehensive Estate Liquidations
Los Angeles

"Premier estate liquidation advisory" β€” engages trustees, executors, fiduciaries directly.

β†’ They win through fiduciary networks, not keywords
CA Estate Sales & Auction
Orange County (Corona del Mar)

35+ years, international clientele, Newport Beach estates. Multi-channel liquidation.

β†’ They win on tenure + auction/private sale optionality
Triumphant Estate Sales
Los Angeles

Full-service liquidation + licensed RE broker. Direct competitor to TLH's bundle.

β†’ They win by offering estate sale + home sale combo
πŸ’‘

TLH's Differentiation

TLH can match the bundle (estate sale + cash offer) and beat on speed/certainty. The gap is channel access β€” getting in front of the right decision-makers before they find competitors through fiduciary networks.

πŸ“ˆ Supporting Data

Win Rates by Channel (Sept–Jan)

Lead β†’ Opp Conversion by Channel

Market Position (EstateSales.net Data)

Region TLH Sales/mo Total Market TLH Share Grasons Share Target
San Diego ~8 ~50 16% 2% 10 (20%)
Orange County ~2 ~42 5% 25% 6 (14%)
Los Angeles ~2 ~100 2% 10% 6 (6%)
Note: Grasons dominates OC (25% share vs TLH's 5%). They don't have local ownership in OC β€” but they have brand recognition and volume. TLH's opportunity is in the premium/bundled segment they don't serve.

πŸ“‹ Summary

The Problem

  • β€’ Whole funnel constrained β€” not enough meetings
  • β€’ PMAX: cheap volume, low quality (4.8% opp rate)
  • β€’ Search: better quality, can't scale enough
  • β€’ Google Ads alone won't close the gap

The Plan

  • β€’ Priority 1: Fiduciary + Move Manager partnerships
  • β€’ Priority 2: Direct mail in premium ZIPs, RE team partnerships
  • β€’ Test: Nextdoor in LA, streaming audio
  • β€’ Keep PMAX running β€” it drives activity while we build new channels

Premium estates route through trust channels, not Google searches. Build the partner network, win the premium segment.