Week 3 opened with $3,595 on 468,676 sends in two days ($0.0077 yield), but the bigger story is structural: Cr-113SMS collapsed from $0.0385 to $0.0061 at scale, matching the Cr-94SMS pattern. ADK now sits at $13,886 of $80K (17.4%). The path forward is clear: D10-first precision, immediate cascade validation on Cr-107SMS, and no broad lower-decile expansion unless segment yield holds.
Until March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET
Week 1 and Week 2 are complete. Week 3 is now in progress with 2 days logged, and pace remains materially behind target.
| Week | Dates | Status | Creatives | Sends | Yield | Donations | Cumul. | Actual vs Plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Feb 24–28 | ✓ DONE | 21 launched | 330,350 | $0.0086 | $2,848 | $2,848 | ▼ $302 below plan ($3,150) |
| Wk 2 | Mar 3–7 | ✓ DONE | 1.24M sends | 1,243,226 | $0.0060 | $7,443 | $10,291 | ▼ Under revised pace needed for $80K |
| Wk 3 | Mar 10–14 | IN PROGRESS | 14 live/launching | 468,676 (2 days) | $0.0077 | $3,595 | $13,886 | Cr-113 collapse headline; Cr-107 validation underway |
| Wk 4 | Mar 17–21 | UPCOMING | 12 planned | 1,500,000 | $0.0175 | $26,250 | $62,421 | Peak cascade — home runs at full volume |
| Wk 5 | Mar 24–31 | UPCOMING | 10 planned | 1,800,000 | $0.018 | $32,400 | $94,821 | Final push — all proven creatives at max cascade |
| TOTAL | 58 unique | 2.04M ADK | $0.0068 | $13,886 | 17.4% complete — severe pace gap | |||
Cr-69SMS remains the donor-volume engine (525,956 sends, 210 donors, $4,636). Cr-40SMS remains the highest-yield scaled earner at $0.0162. Cr-83SMSb is still strong at $0.0192 with controlled expansion. Week 3 opened with $3,595 in 2 days.
Cr-113SMS collapsed at cascade. It fell from $0.0385 (35K) to $0.0061 (357K), with D10 still hot ($0.0443) but all other deciles near zero. This mirrors Cr-94SMS and confirms broad cascade is destroying yield. Current pace is ~$926/day vs $3,306/day needed.
☐ Halt broad cascade on any creative below $0.010 outside D10
☐ Validate Cr-107SMS in controlled D8/DD cells this week
☐ Keep Cr-83SMSb to profitable segments only
☐ Rebuild blended ADK yield toward $0.009+ first milestone
☐ Prioritize D10 inventory quality over raw send volume
45 unique creatives in the SLF program (152 campaigns). SLF has all pending creatives and is expected to approve over the weekend. Their review process requires a different notification method than our standard automation — not a bottleneck on our end.
SLF has these creatives and is expected to approve over the weekend. Their notification process differs from our standard automation. Grouped by creative family/concept.
| Family | Creatives | Count | LP | Priority | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 250th Birthday / Statesman Award | Cr-116SMS, Cr-117SMS, Cr-118SMS, Cr-119SMS, Cr-120SMS, Cr-121SMS | 6 | Cr-16-FL | HIGH | Timely hook (July 4). RSVP/exclusivity angle. Needs approval ASAP. |
| 🚨 Red Alert / ASCII Art | Cr-114, Cr-115SMS | 2 | Cr-15-FL | MEDIUM | Novel format — visual disruption in SMS feed. Worth testing. |
| 📋 Voter File / Census | Cr-106SMS thru Cr-112SMS | 7 | Cr-14-FL | HIGH | Census/verification mechanic — similar DNA to Newt census (Cr-83SMSb home run). Could be the next wave. |
| 📨 Certified Delivery | Cr-103SMS, Cr-104SMS, Cr-105SMS | 3 | Cr-13-FL | MEDIUM | "First-class delivery" / "spent MASSIVE $$$" urgency frame. By Damian. |
| 🇮🇷 Iran Strike / Gold Star Mom | Cr-99, Cr-100, Cr-101, Cr-102SMS | 4 | Cr-12-FL | HIGH | Brenda May story + Schumer blocking angle. Emotionally powerful. Time-sensitive hook. |
| 🏖️ Benghazi / Shadow Warriors | Cr-87, Cr-88SMS, Cr-89, Cr-90SMS | 4 | Cr-10 | MEDIUM | Mark "Oz" Geist first-person. Long-form narrative. Different voice than current portfolio. |
All creatives with sends > 0, ranked by total donated. Color-coded by yield tier.
| # | Creative | Batches | Total Sent | Donors | $ Donated | Yield/Send | Tier | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cr-40SMS | 12 | 177,817 | 69 | $2,882 | $0.0162 | 🏠 Home Run | Revenue leader — proven at scale |
| 2 | Cr-72SMS | 16 | 404,357 | 46 | $2,755 | $0.0068 | 1️⃣ Single | High volume, lower yield |
| 3 | Cr-69SMS | 19 | 299,483 | 118 | $2,341 | $0.0078 | 1️⃣ Single | Most donors — volume play |
| 4 | Cr-94SMS | 8 | 59,606 | 55 | $1,056 | $0.0177 🔥 | 🏠 Home Run | Scaling fast — cascade to DD |
| 5 | Cr-83SMSb | 4 | 40,991 | 34 | $967 | $0.0236 🔥 | 🏠 Home Run | Best yield at scale — Newt voice |
| 6 | Cr-60SMS | 14 | 201,795 | 60 | $990 | $0.0049 | ❌ Break-even | Near break-even — don't expand |
| 7 | Cr-75SMS | 5 | 51,358 | 26 | $766 | $0.0149 | 2️⃣ Double | Solid — more cascade potential |
| 8 | Cr-69SMSb | 1 | — | 32 | $554 | — | 🌟 New | BMD list — just launched |
| 9 | Cr-40SMSb | 2 | 71,724 | 14 | $350 | $0.0049 | ❌ Break-even | D9 cascade underperformed |
| 10 | Cr-113SMS | 2 | 4,865 | 5 | $291 | $0.0597 🔥🔥 | 🌟 Emerging | HIGHEST YIELD — expand immediately |
Every creative falls into one of four tiers based on D10 yield. Updated with actual SLF performance data through Mar 5.
| List Segment | NRSC Benchmark | SLF Actual | SLF as % of NRSC | Sends | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DB Donors D10 | $0.092 | $0.026 | 28% | 347K | $9,040 donated. Room to improve with better creatives. |
| DB Donors D9 | $0.029 | $0.0047 | 16% | 200K | Underperforming — only expand proven D10 winners here |
| DB Donors D8 | $0.025 | $0.0046 | 18% | 147K | Similar to D9 — selective expansion only |
| DigitalDonors D10 | $0.024 | $0.0030 | 13% | 91K | Significantly below benchmark. Use only for home runs. |
| DB Responders D10 | $0.013 | $0.0005 | 4% | 33K | Net negative. Avoid for now. |
All creatives with revenue, ranked by total donated. Major shift: Cr-113SMS collapsed at cascade (to $0.0061 at 357K), while Cr-107SMS emerged as the new upside candidate ($0.0138 at 58K).
| # | Creative | Total Sent | Donated | Recurring | Yield/Send | Donors | Batches | Tier | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cr-69SMS MAGA test / confirm within hour | 525,956 | $4,636 | $1,485 | $0.0088 | 210 | 19 | 1️⃣ Single | ➡️ Volume + donor leader |
| 2 | Cr-40SMS $9B fraud / SURVEY | 177,817 | $2,882 | $1,240 | $0.0162 | 69 | 12 | 2️⃣ Double | Best scaled yield |
| 3 | Cr-72SMS Senate confidential / 10 min | 404,357 | $2,755 | $875 | $0.0068 | 46 | 16 | 1️⃣ Single | High volume, modest yield |
| 4 | Cr-113SMS ▼ Senate confidential / 10 min (v2) | 357,175 | $2,185 | $540 | $0.0061 ▼ | 59 | 11 | ❌ Collapsed | Cascade collapse outside D10 |
| 5 | Cr-94SMS Transmission check / deep state | 551,437 | $2,017 | $839 | $0.0037 | 86 | 23 | ❌ Collapsed | Second collapsed home run |
| 6 | Cr-60SMS | 201,795 | $990 | $0 | $0.0049 | 60 | 14 | ❌ Break-even | Cap expansion |
| 7 | Cr-40SMSb | 190,996 | $945 | $112 | $0.0049 | 25 | 9 | ❌ Break-even | D9 cascade weak |
| 8 | Cr-107SMS ⬆️ | 58,410 | $805 | $98 | $0.0138 | 33 | 6 | 🌟 Emerging | D10/D9 both positive |
| 9 | Cr-83SMSb 🔥 | 40,991 | $786 | $211 | $0.0192 | 29 | 4 | 🏠 HR | Holding strong |
| 10 | Cr-75SMS | 51,358 | $766 | $161 | $0.0149 | 26 | 5 | 2️⃣ Double | Solid performer |
| ALL CREATIVES (ADK) | 2,042,252 | $13,886 | $4,173 | $0.0068 | 507 | 174 campaigns |
Went from $0.0177 yield at 60K sends to $0.0033 at 551K sends. Highest-volume SLF creative but yield collapsed beyond D10. Lesson: don't trust early D10 yields without cascade validation.
$0.0138 at 58K sends with D10 $0.0190 and D9 $0.0202. Best current upside candidate, but must survive D8/DD testing before being treated as a home run.
Confirmed picture is weaker: Cr-83SMSb is the only stable home run; Cr-94SMS and Cr-113SMS both collapsed. Cr-107SMS is the next test.
Uses actual Week 1–2 data. Cr-94SMS collapse means yield targets need revision. Revised target: $40K–$50K realistic (significant shortfall).
| Metric | Actual / Projected | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1 (actual) | $2,848 | 330K sends at $0.0086 yield |
| Week 2 (actual) | $15,723 | 1.35M sends at $0.0117 yield |
| Week 3 (projected) | $12,000 | 900K sends at $0.013 (cascade Cr-113SMS + Cr-83SMSb, stop Cr-94 expansion) |
| Week 4 (projected) | $14,000 | 1.1M sends at $0.013 (pipeline winners needed) |
| Week 5 (projected) | $12,000 | 1.0M sends at $0.012 (fatigue) |
| Confirmed Home Runs | 2 (Cr-113SMS, Cr-83SMSb) | Cr-94SMS demoted. Need 2+ more from pipeline. |
| Pipeline to Unlock | Pipeline approvals critical | Need 10+ approved by Week 3 |
| Projected Total | $59,291 | 74% of goal — $20,709 short |
At current trajectory, we fall ~$31K short. Closing the gap requires: (1) Cr-113SMS holding through cascade ($8K+ potential), (2) 2+ new home runs from pipeline (voter file, 250th birthday, Iran strike families), (3) volume to 1M+/week, (4) stop bleeding yield on Cr-94SMS-level expansions. The Cr-94SMS collapse is the cautionary tale: validate at D9 before full cascade.
Assumes pipeline bottleneck clears (15+ creatives approved by Week 3), Cr-113SMS confirms as a super home run, and 2 more home runs emerge from new families.
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1–3 start (actual) | $13,886 | $2,848 + $7,443 + $3,595 (2 days) |
| Week 3 | $18,000 | 1.2M sends, Cr-113SMS cascade + 2 new winners |
| Week 4 | $24,000 | 1.5M sends, multiple home runs at full cascade |
| Week 5 | $26,000 | 1.7M sends, 250th birthday + Iran strike performing |
| Home Runs | 4+ | Cr-113SMS + Cr-83SMSb + 2 from pipeline |
| Projected Total | $74,200 | 93% of goal — still short $5,800 |
Assumes pipeline bottleneck persists, no new home runs, and yield plateaus at current levels. This is the "do nothing different" scenario.
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1–3 start (actual) | $13,886 | Actual |
| Week 3 | $7,000 | 600K sends, Cr-113SMS fades at cascade like Cr-94 did |
| Week 4 | $6,000 | 500K sends, D10 exhaustion, no pipeline unlocks |
| Week 5 | $5,000 | 400K sends, diminishing returns |
| Home Runs | 1 (Cr-83SMSb only) | Cr-113SMS collapses at scale like Cr-94SMS did |
| Projected Total | $33,500 | 42% of goal — $46,500 short |
If Cr-113SMS also collapses at scale (like Cr-94SMS did), the entire program is carried by Cr-83SMSb alone. That's a ~$29K program. The Cr-94SMS collapse proves this isn't theoretical — D10 yields don't always survive cascade.
$13,886 raised so far. 20 days remaining. Need $3,306/day.
At $0.015 target yield over 20 days. ~220K sends/day.
Each generating $8K–$12K or equivalent in aggregate. Requires immediate pipeline hits + disciplined segmenting.
SLF has all pending creatives and is expected to approve over the weekend. Be ready to launch Monday. Pre-queue: voter file set (Cr-106–112), 250th birthday (Cr-116–121), Iran strike (Cr-99–102). Each family could produce a home run. Have D10 batches staged so we can send within hours of approval.
$0.0385 yield at 35K sends — confirmed home run. But Cr-94SMS taught us: validate at D9 before full cascade. Send 20K to D9 first. If yield holds above $0.02, expand to D8/DD. If it drops below $0.015, keep it D10-only. Don't repeat the Cr-94SMS mistake.
Cr-94SMS ($0.0037) and Cr-113SMS ($0.0061) are both post-collapse. No additional lower-decile rollout on either unless a segment-specific retest proves profitability.
Iran Strike LP (Cr-12-FL) and 250th Birthday LP (Cr-16-FL) need to go live to unlock their creative families. These are emotionally distinct from the fraud/census messaging dominating the portfolio — fresh angles = fresh money.
Cr-93 thru Cr-98 all tested on D9-6 and produced $0 in donations. Cr-60SMS is at break-even. Cr-72SMS yields $0.007 but consumes massive volume. Stop expanding these and redirect capacity to home runs.
By Monday Mar 10: Cr-113SMS to D9/D8/DD (100K sends). Cr-94SMS to DD D10 (30K sends). Cr-83SMSb to D9 full (30K sends). Total: 160K+ expansion sends in first 2 days of Week 3. This is where the $17K week happens.
Missed D9-6 → D10 opportunities: none right now. In the latest extract, no D9-6 creative with Yield/Send ≥ $0.005 is sitting unexpanded from D10.
| Creative | D9-6 Yield/Send | D9-6 Sends | Current Expansion State | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cr-69SMS | $0.0053 | 109,095 | Expanded through D10/D9/D8 | Keep scaling, but cap Decile 6-5 where yield is negative. |
| Cr-72SMS | $0.0151 | 4,966 | Expanded; D10 is strong, lower deciles mixed | Prioritize D10 + D9 pockets. Avoid broad lower-decile blasts. |
| Cr-75SMS | $0.0152 | 4,949 | Expanded to D10 + D9 | Re-test D9 with tight volume gates before any wider cascade. |
| Risk | Impact | Status | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pipeline with SLF for approval | Medium | WITH SLF | SLF has all creatives. Expected approvals over weekend. Not in our hands. |
| Cr-107SMS fails cascade validation | High | WATCH | Run D8/DD pilot only. If segment yield drops under floor, lock to D10. |
| D10 list fatigue | Medium | WATCH | 347K D10 sends already. Rotate creatives. Don't send same segment < 72hrs. |
| No new home runs from pipeline | High | CONTINGENT | Double down on proven winners. Shift from $80K target to "maximize what works." |
| LP conversion bottleneck | Medium | ACTIVE | Iran Strike + 250th Birthday LPs needed. Emily/Kerrington priority. |
☐ Keep Cr-94SMS frozen (no new expansion)
☐ Pull 24h segment-level yield readout for Cr-69/72/75/113
☐ Tighten expansion gates: no new segment below $0.005 yield
☐ Confirm approved pipeline creatives are queued for same-day launch
☐ Launch 1–2 approved pipeline families to D10 test cells
☐ Keep Cr-69SMS scaling where segment yield stays positive
☐ Re-test Cr-75SMS in controlled D9 volume (no blind cascade)
☐ Publish Week 3 midpoint readout (actual vs pacing)
☐ End week with 2+ scaled winners (not one fragile home run)
☐ Cut any segment under -$0.002 yield for 2 consecutive reads
☐ Protect D10 inventory; no fatigue spikes from repeat blasts
☐ Lock Week 4 send plan around proven yield pockets