🔬 NRSC Creative Forensics

Data: 2023-01-01 → 2025-09-19 | T2: DonorBureau Non-CPA | 4,595 polls | $3.6M revenue

Total Revenue

$3.65M
4,595 polls analyzed

Top 10% Share

95.1%
Power Law confirmed

Evergreen Creatives

90
10+ polls each

Best Hook Type

Guilt
YI 5.38 (3.8x avg)
1

SHORT SHAME HITS HARDEST

Yield Index: 5.38 | Sample: 37 polls | Lift: 3.8x vs average
"We trusted you, [firstname|Friend]. Prove us right--fix your voter profile IMMEDIATELY: [link]"
— Cr-1881SMS, YI 8.06, 26 polls, $8,517
2

THE SECRET MESSAGE PATTERN IS GOLD

Yield Index: 14.42 | Sample: 15 polls | Status: Under-exploited
"The National Republican Senatorial Committee has sent you a secret message, please review within the next 15 minutes: [link]"
— Cr-1658SMS, YI 14.42, 15 polls, $7,892
3

DON JR. IS THE CLOSER

Yield Index: 3.98 | Sample: 18 polls | Revenue: $27K
"I'm not going to play this game any more, [firstname|Fellow Conservative]. This is the most important election year ever. My father and I need you to verify your voter profile right now."
— Cr-1121, YI 3.98, 18 polls, $27,136
4

EMOJI BOOST IS REAL (+16% YI)

With Emoji: YI 1.63 | Without: YI 1.40 | Sample: 802 vs 3,793 polls
"💔 How can we win, [firstname|Friend]? Your absence in rallying behind Trump is a setback. FINAL CALL: Show your support, verify your commitment, complete the audit: [link]"
— Cr-1137, YI 5.93, 11 polls, $10,744
5

TED CRUZ "FIGHT OF MY LIFE" IS EVERGREEN

Yield Index: 3.31 | Polls: 55 | Revenue: $74K
"[firstname|Patriot], this is Ted Cruz & I'm in the fight of my life. It all comes down to this: [link]"
— Cr-1486SMS, YI 3.31, 55 polls, $74,079
6

DEADLINE + LIST REMOVAL = URGENCY

Yield Index: 8.57 | Sample: 16 polls | Pattern: FINAL WARNING frame
"This is your FINAL WARNING before we remove your name from our Trusted Republican List. You only have HOURS LEFT to fix this mistake."
— Cr-1748, YI 8.57, 16 polls, $9,804
7

SOCIAL PROOF WITH EMAILS WORKS

Yield Index: 4.09 | Sample: 19 polls | Revenue: $21K
"📧 Here's what other committed patriots look like in your community: kyle__@gmail.com: VOTING FOR REPUBLICANS..."
— Cr-1381, YI 4.09, 19 polls, $20,711
8

DEMOCRATS PANICKING = REPUBLICAN ENERGY

Yield Index: 4.77 | Sample: 36 polls | Key: Direct quotes
"🧐 Democrats are turning on their own party: 'This is worse than 2016... Our party is so weak and so diminished.'"
— Cr-1726, YI 4.77, 36 polls, $15,715
9

BINARY POLLS SCALE INFINITELY (LOW YI)

Yield Index: -0.29 | Polls: 174 | Revenue: $197K | Use: Volume only
"Who are you voting for? KAMALA HARRIS & TIM WALZ: [link] PRESIDENT TRUMP & JD VANCE: [link]"
— Cr-1358SMS, YI -0.29, 174 polls, $196,958
10

MYSTERY + COUNTDOWN = ENGAGEMENT

Yield Index: 1.51 | Polls: 47 | Revenue: $58K
"*Alert* Message from [Ted Cruz] will be gone in 13 minutes. See the message before permanent removal > [link]"
— Cr-1387SMS, YI 1.51, 47 polls, $58,028

🏆 Top 10 Winners by Winner Score

Winner Score = 50% Efficiency + 30% Scale + 20% Adoption

Cr-1881SMS Score: 0.975
26
Polls
198K
Sends
$8,517
Revenue
8.06
Yield Index
We trusted you, [firstname|Friend]. Prove us right--fix your voter profile IMMEDIATELY: [link]
Cr-1568 Score: 0.975
17
Polls
192K
Sends
$15,016
Revenue
6.47
Yield Index
We can't believe what you did, [firstname|Friend]. President Trump DEFEATED Kamala Harris because of loyal supporters LIKE YOU. Now, it's time to FIX our country. Our team has put together a special survey that we need YOU to take ASAP. Complete it here > [link]
Cr-1748 Score: 0.974
16
Polls
156K
Sends
$9,804
Revenue
8.57
Yield Index
I wish someone would respond. 😢 We sent you multiple alerts. We handpicked you. And still NO RESPONSE. This is your FINAL WARNING before we remove your name from our Trusted Republican List. You only have HOURS LEFT to fix this mistake. 🔴 Secure your Republican Status NOW → [link]
Cr-1658SMS Score: 0.973
15
Polls
107K
Sends
$7,892
Revenue
14.42
Yield Index ⭐
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has sent you a secret message, please review within the next 15 minutes: [link]
Cr-1486SMS Score: 0.971
55
Polls
3.8M
Sends
$74,079
Revenue
3.31
Yield Index
[firstname|Patriot], this is Ted Cruz & I'm in the fight of my life. It all comes down to this: [link]

⚠️ The Cr-1243 Case Study: Volume ≠ Quality

Cr-1243 (The Monster) YI: 0.38 ⚠️
272
Polls
31.9M
Sends
$819,213
Revenue
0.38
Yield Index
There's something we haven't told you yet, [firstname|Friend]. This is Donald Trump Jr. Completing our survey is crucial >> [link] We need 1500 more responses to finalize our data in [zipcode|your area]. Confirm your Republican Voting Status >> [link]

Verdict: Scaled on operational convenience, not creative excellence. 218 polls in July 2024 alone. Good enough to scale, not good enough to celebrate.

📱 Format: SMS vs MMS

SMS
YI 1.57
$12.86 CPM
MMS
YI 1.35
$29.96 CPM

MMS = higher raw revenue/send, SMS = better normalized performance

📅 Year Type

Off-Year (2023)
YI 1.82
$363K
Election (2024)
YI 1.20
$2.9M
Off-Year (2025)
YI 1.84
$335K

🎣 Hook Type Performance

Guilt/Shame
YI 5.38
37 polls
Insider/Exclusive
YI 4.12
55 polls
Urgency/Deadline
YI 3.91
61 polls
Gratitude
YI 1.57
284 polls
Trump/Identity
YI 1.51
1,248 polls
Survey/Poll
YI 0.52
426 polls

📏 Message Length

Short (<160)
YI 1.54
Medium (160-320)
YI 1.42
Long (320-500)
YI 1.19
Very Long (500-1K)
YI 1.43
Epic (1000+)
YI 1.63

😀 Emoji Impact

With Emoji
YI 1.63
802 polls
No Emoji
YI 1.40
3,793 polls

+16% lift with emoji

📈 Expansion Funnel

Stage Creatives % of Total Revenue Avg Yield Index
Tested (1 poll) 1,021 75.9% $47,327 -0.88
Repeat (2-4 polls) 160 11.9% $104,339 3.56
Scaled (5-9 polls) 74 5.5% $227,671 3.81
Evergreen (10+ polls) 90 6.7% $3,265,399 2.35

Key insight: Tested → Repeat shows massive YI jump (from -0.88 to 3.56). The first repeat is the signal that a creative works.

🔥 Power Words (Use These)

Phrases correlated with high Yield Index

"dead serious" — YI 24.94 "reclaim your place" — YI 23.47 "your silence" — YI 22.85 "were the only" — YI 22.85 "complete this now" — YI 24.88 "we trusted you" — YI 8.06 "secret message" — YI 14.42 "fight of my life" — YI 3.31 "FINAL WARNING" — YI 8.57

☠️ Poison Words (Avoid)

Phrases correlated with low/negative Yield Index

"with trump" — YI -16.72 "to stand with" — YI -10.18 "we should" — YI -8.64 "america s" — YI -5.18 "first 100 days" — YI -4.73 "your private" — YI -5.72 "must be" — YI -4.51 "your spot" — YI -4.46 "trump has" — YI -3.98

🎯 Counterintuitive Finding

Why "with Trump" has NEGATIVE yield index

Trump works as identity context ("Trump DEFEATED Kamala"), not as action framing ("stand with Trump"). The passive "with" construction reduces urgency and personal agency.

✅ What Works

  • "Trump DEFEATED Kamala"
  • "My father and I need you to..."
  • "President Trump is counting on you"

❌ What Fails

  • "Stand with Trump"
  • "Show you're with Trump"
  • "America needs to stand with Trump"