🔬 NCPD Creative Forensics

T1 Analysis: DonorBureau + Decile 10 | Generated 2026-02-06

133
T1 Polls
45
Unique Creatives
2.1M
Total Sends
$143K
Total Revenue
1.26
Avg Yield Index
📜 The 10 Laws
🏆 Winners
📊 Patterns
💬 Power Words
LAW 1
LET THE WIFE SPEAK
Personal_note hooks (spouse intro) achieve Yield Index 1.29 vs 1.12 for direct_ask. 4/5 top winners use this format.
⚠️ Breaks when officer has public credibility issues or emotional appeal is overused on same segment.
"😭 [firstname], this is Kimberly, Chance's wife. I am BEGGING you." — Cr-297, YI 1.91, 31 polls
LAW 2
URGENCY IS NON-NEGOTIABLE
90% of polls include urgency words. Non-urgent creatives average 0.48 YI vs 1.33 for urgent.
⚠️ Breaks when urgency claims become obviously false after repeated use.
"His trial is just weeks away, and we're terrified. We need immediate help" — Cr-270
LAW 3
CRISIS > POLICY
Crisis_alert hooks achieve highest avg Yield Index (1.69) but only 4.5% of volume.
⚠️ Breaks when crisis isn't credibly imminent. "BREAKING" requires genuine news.
Crisis hooks consistently outperform policy-focused messaging.
LAW 4
LONG FORM ENABLES STORY
Long (320+ char) messages achieve YI 1.30 vs 1.03 for Short. 89% of T1 is Long.
⚠️ Breaks when padded without purpose. Length works because it enables story arc.
Multi-paragraph family appeals outperform truncated versions.
LAW 5
NAME THE VILLAIN, NAME THE VICTIM
"George Soros" achieves YI 1.58 (n=4). Humanized officers outperform abstract references.
⚠️ Breaks when villain reference feels forced or disconnected from case.
"a DA funded by George Soros' agenda" — Cr-207, YI 2.39
LAW 6
FIRST PERSON, FIRST POSITION
97% of polls use first-person perspective. Personal voice consistently wins.
⚠️ Breaks when purported author lacks credibility or readers question authenticity.
"I'm reaching out with a mother's plea for justice"
LAW 7
CHILDREN MAKE IT CONCRETE
"Young son", "babies", "children" appear in top performers consistently.
⚠️ Breaks when children references feel exploitative.
"There's a 6-year-old who sets an empty plate every night" — Cr-409, YI 2.14
LAW 8
QUIET KILLERS ARE UNDER-EXPLOITED
Cr-199 achieved YI 2.73 on only 2 polls. Cr-409 achieved 2.14 on 2 polls. Both should scale.
⚠️ Breaks when initial performance was timing-dependent (holiday giving).
"This is a letter from a tormented mother" — Cr-199, only $5,585 raised due to limited deployment
LAW 9
THURSDAY-FRIDAY OUTPERFORMS
Thursday (2.27 avg YI) and Friday (1.54) beat Wednesday (0.41) and Tuesday (0.82).
⚠️ Breaks during holiday weeks or major news events.
35 polls on Friday at 1.54 YI vs 22 on Wednesday at 0.41 YI
LAW 10
SCALE WINNERS FAST, KILL LOSERS FASTER
Only 1 creative reached Evergreen. Cr-207b scaled to 6 polls despite -0.30 YI.
⚠️ Breaks when operational constraints prevent rapid scaling.
Cr-297 scaled to 31 polls, still profitable. Should have killed Cr-207b earlier.

🏆 Top 5 Winners by Winner Score

1
Cr-297 (Kimberly/Chance)
Evergreen
1.91
Yield Index
31
Polls
499,893
Sends
$35,686
Revenue
😭 [firstname], this is Kimberly, Chance's wife. I don't know how to do this, but I am BEGGING you. I'm watching my husband prepare for a trial that could take him away from us forever. He doesn't deserve this. Our babies don't deserve this. We need help, and we need it NOW. If you've ever thought about helping, this is the time. Please, stand with Chance before it's too late: [link]
personal_note urgency long first-person
2
Cr-400 (Kimberly begging)
Scaled
1.93
Yield Index
8
Polls
116,119
Sends
$9,716
Revenue
[firstname|Friend], Kimberly here. I'm begging for help. My husband, Officer Chance Bretches, is facing years in prison. Not for a crime, but for protecting our community. Our three children could lose their dad forever. We're running out of time to fund his defense. Please, if you can give anything NOW. It could save his life: [link]
personal_note urgency children stakes
3
Cr-207 (Sheriff Clarke)
Repeat
2.39
Yield Index
4
Polls
45,377
Sends
$8,221
Revenue
[firstname|Friend] - this is Sheriff David Clarke. I rarely take this step, but I sense this family needs me. I want you to - please - just read this and do what your heart compels you to do. I'm reaching out with an urgent plea on behalf of Officer Chris Taylor and his family. Imagine dedicating your life to serving and protecting your community, only to find yourself facing life in prison for performing your duty... ...a DA funded by George Soros' agenda against our law enforcement heroes.
celebrity_signer authority villain_named

🔇 Quiet Killers (Under-exploited)

!
Cr-199 (Mother's letter)
Only 2 polls!
2.73
Yield Index
17,213
Sends
$5,585
Revenue
My dear son, Officer Chris Taylor, once again finds himself battling for his life in a court of law. This is a letter from a tormented mother. They don't tell you how to prepare for this kind of pain - seeing your child constantly placed on trial... As his mother, I beg for your help >> [link]

⚠️ SCALE THIS CREATIVE — highest Yield Index in dataset with minimal deployment

!
Cr-409 (6-year-old plate)
Only 2 polls!
2.14
Yield Index
32,109
Sends
$2,673
Revenue
There's a 6-year-old right now who sets an empty plate at the table every night because her daddy - a police officer - is locked in a cell for a split-second decision he made to save lives. His wife cries herself to sleep. His parents haven't smiled in 18 months. Prosecutors want him to die in prison. All because he did his job. This Giving Tuesday, YOU can stop this nightmare...

⚠️ SCALE THIS CREATIVE — powerful child-focused hook with high yield

Hook Type Performance
crisis_alert
1.69
personal_note
1.29
direct_ask
1.12
identity
1.09
Day of Week Performance
Thursday
2.27
Sunday
1.56
Friday
1.54
Monday
1.32
Saturday
0.84
Tuesday
0.82
Wednesday
0.41
Expansion Funnel
15
Tested
26
Repeat
3
Scaled
1
Evergreen

97% of creatives never reach Evergreen status. Most promising creatives aren't given enough tests.

Key Insights
  • 📊 Power Law: Top 10% of creatives generate 18% of revenue. Top winner alone = 25%.
  • 🎰 Multi-Armed Bandit: We're under-exploring. High-potential creatives (Quiet Killers) aren't getting enough tests.
  • ⏱️ Lindy Effect: Cr-297 first sent Feb 2025, still winning Dec 2025. Strong emotional appeals don't expire.
  • 📉 Threshold: Cr-207b hit fatigue at 6 polls (-0.30 YI). List overlap drives decay, not creative age.
🔥 Power Words (Use These)
"chris taylor" (1.58) "wife amy" (1.58) "their young son" (1.58) "george soros" (1.58) "responded to" (1.74) "to neutralize" (1.57) "begging" / "beg" "babies" / "children" "before it's too late" "NOW" (caps)
☠️ Poison Words (Avoid)
"him from" (-0.10) "sarah brennand" (-0.07) "for the" (-0.04) "facing a" (-0.03) "wants to" (-0.03) "radical da" (0.11) "family is" generic phrasing
Word Pattern Insights
  • Specific names win: "Chris Taylor", "wife Amy" outperform generic references
  • Named villains work: "George Soros" gives donors a target for their frustration
  • "Radical DA" is worn out: Once powerful, now underperforms (0.11 YI) — likely overused
  • Generic phrasing kills: "facing a", "wants to", "for the" signal lazy writing